Data from Glassnode reveals that the current Bitcoin crash was the biggest in historical past in greenback phrases, coming in at $2.56 billion. The “corona crash” of March 2020 was the earlier greatest, at $1.38 billion.
Although 13% positive aspects yesterday introduced welcome aid, uncertainty nonetheless guidelines. The query on everybody’s thoughts is, are we nonetheless in a bull market?
Source: @WClementeIII on Twitter.com
Sentiment Remains Raw
The occasions of the previous fortnight have proven that Bitcoin just isn’t proof against FUD or, as some suspect, market manipulation. Holding all through this era has been a painful expertise for many. But the most important concern is that final Wednesday’s crash signaled the top of the bull run.
Debate nonetheless rages as as to whether that’s the case or not. From a sentiment viewpoint, a studying of twenty-two on the Fear and Greed Index reveals frazzled nerves are nonetheless uncooked with excessive concern.
This is a marked enchancment over yesterday’s studying of 10. But to say the market stays cautious can be an understatement.
The Fear and Greed Index measures feelings and sentiment to characterize them on a scale of 0 to 100. 0 represents excessive concern, whereas 100 reveals excessive greed.
A have a look at the Bitcoin day by day chart reveals BTC is at the moment beneath the 200-day shifting common, which signifies that bears nonetheless have the higher hand regardless of yesterday’s aid rally. A detailed above the 200-day shifting common is required to allay fears that the bull market is over.
BTC is making an attempt to construct on yesterday’s positive aspects and work its means above the 200-day shifting common. But till that occurs, from a technical perspective, it’s too quickly to say with conviction whether or not the bull cycle stays intact.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
What’s Next For Bitcoin?
That hasn’t stopped a flood of analysts from giving their opinion on the matter. The Founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, Tom Lee, stated volatility is the character of Bitcoin. He maintains his pre-crash worth prediction of $100k by the top of the 12 months.
“I believe bitcoin is hyper-volatile. That’s the character of it, however that’s what creates the reward for folks.
Again, although bitcoin is within the penalty field now, I nonetheless suppose it might exit the 12 months over $100,000.”
Similarly, in an interview hosted by Scott Melker, PlanB sought to reassure viewers by saying his stock-to-flow (S2F) and stock-to-flow X (S2FX) fashions counsel the bull market is undamaged.
According to his evaluation, Bitcoin is on monitor to hit $100k per the S2F mannequin or $288k per the S2FX mannequin.
“I’m very data-driven so I don’t make that up, however I learn within the knowledge, I look to my stock-to-flow fashions, the stock-to-flow mannequin and the stock-to-flow X mannequin, and each fashions really present we’re actually not on the finish of the cycle.
We nonetheless have some room to go till $100,000 on common or $288,000 on common for those who observe the stock-to-flow X mannequin.”
S2F refers to a statistical evaluation mannequin that appears on the impact of shortage on the Bitcoin worth. Critics argue that shortage just isn’t the only real driver of worth.